South Ossetia at War: Who woke the Russian Bear?
August 11th 2008 21:50
South Ossetia at War: Who woke the Russian Bear?
12 August 2008
Several days ago the President of Georgia was sounding firm and determined that he would wrestle control over South Ossetia by one means or another. Few in the West would have expected that he would send tanks into the region. Yet as the Olympic started the tanks started rolling in.
South Ossetia fell within the borders of Georgia after the Soviet Union collapsed but North Ossetia fell within Russian borders. Georgians became staunch allies with the USA and even their army was trained by America whereas South Ossetia after some conflict remained as an autonomous state within Georgia. The trouble has brewed for a few years as Ossetians have been divided from each other due to the Russian Georgian border. With South Ossetia being loyal to Russia and George loyal to the USA there were bigger ambitions in the mix than just a confused border dispute. The expectation of unconditional NATO support for Georgia actions due to its loyalty to the West may have been the biggest mistake that the Georgian President made. When sent tanks he possibly saw Russia as a sleeping bear too tired be a world power in comparison to his new best friend the USA. Unfortunately this perception was wrong and Russia immediately retaliated with over whelming force.
There is no denying that this has been a brutal action from both sides with claims and counter claims of atrocities. Russian Prime Minister Putin accusing Georgia of committing genocide against the Ossetians as US Pres George Bush accuses Russian of a disproportionate response. Either way the conflict has left at least 2000 dead and has potentially damaged relations.
The most significant indication of result of this conflict is the total lack of action by NATO or Georgia’s ally the USA. Despite arming and training the Georgian army George Bush has not rushed to send in his own forces. Instead we have plenty of words but little action. This is a telling sign that neither NATO nor the USA is willing to get involved in this conflict. Russia is not longer the tired old bear that was after the collapse of the Soviet Union but has shown that it is once more a force to be reckoned with. Any direct conflict between it and NATO would be costly for both sides. Yet NATO has more to lose if it is weakened.
Again we have the rhetoric that another cold war may result out of this conflict. However such talk ignores the bigger plans by both the USA and Russia to show their dominance as the regional power in Europe. South Ossetia is a little conflict with bigger implications because it is about who the former Soviet states should see as the regional power. Russia like China and India will continue to build up military might until once again one of them is considered a super power. In that mad race to be king of that hill the Russian Bear has woken up and is already climbing steadily.
12 August 2008
The conflict continues despite calls for a cease fire.
Several days ago the President of Georgia was sounding firm and determined that he would wrestle control over South Ossetia by one means or another. Few in the West would have expected that he would send tanks into the region. Yet as the Olympic started the tanks started rolling in.
South Ossetia fell within the borders of Georgia after the Soviet Union collapsed but North Ossetia fell within Russian borders. Georgians became staunch allies with the USA and even their army was trained by America whereas South Ossetia after some conflict remained as an autonomous state within Georgia. The trouble has brewed for a few years as Ossetians have been divided from each other due to the Russian Georgian border. With South Ossetia being loyal to Russia and George loyal to the USA there were bigger ambitions in the mix than just a confused border dispute. The expectation of unconditional NATO support for Georgia actions due to its loyalty to the West may have been the biggest mistake that the Georgian President made. When sent tanks he possibly saw Russia as a sleeping bear too tired be a world power in comparison to his new best friend the USA. Unfortunately this perception was wrong and Russia immediately retaliated with over whelming force.
There is no denying that this has been a brutal action from both sides with claims and counter claims of atrocities. Russian Prime Minister Putin accusing Georgia of committing genocide against the Ossetians as US Pres George Bush accuses Russian of a disproportionate response. Either way the conflict has left at least 2000 dead and has potentially damaged relations.
The most significant indication of result of this conflict is the total lack of action by NATO or Georgia’s ally the USA. Despite arming and training the Georgian army George Bush has not rushed to send in his own forces. Instead we have plenty of words but little action. This is a telling sign that neither NATO nor the USA is willing to get involved in this conflict. Russia is not longer the tired old bear that was after the collapse of the Soviet Union but has shown that it is once more a force to be reckoned with. Any direct conflict between it and NATO would be costly for both sides. Yet NATO has more to lose if it is weakened.
Again we have the rhetoric that another cold war may result out of this conflict. However such talk ignores the bigger plans by both the USA and Russia to show their dominance as the regional power in Europe. South Ossetia is a little conflict with bigger implications because it is about who the former Soviet states should see as the regional power. Russia like China and India will continue to build up military might until once again one of them is considered a super power. In that mad race to be king of that hill the Russian Bear has woken up and is already climbing steadily.
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Comment by D. Armenta
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Bad timing on Georgia's part, or brilliant strategy?
Time will tell.
Comment by S.L.
The Political Brief
Comment by Damo
For the Sake of Argument
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Thanks for your comments.
I kept this post intentionally short to reduce my scope for over speculating (which would encourage paranoia).
On the Georgian part the only thing that can be said about its President is 'absolute stupidity'. Never assume you have the support of your allies then start a conflict. Let you allies start the conflict then offer words of support only. That is a win-win situation.
Georgia is a staunch USA ally but obviously not a crucial one.
Comment by Damo
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Thanks for your comments.
2000 troops have just been airlifted by the USA back to Georgia. Russia says to the war zone but the US won't confirm or deny this.
South Ossetia was an autonomies region for the last few years. Over 70% of the population have Russian passports rather than Georgian passports. There were also Russian Peace Keepers in South Ossetia at the time of Georgian action to send in tanks.
Russia accuses George of killing their peacekeepers first.
So the situation has escallated.
The thousands of refugees poured over the border to Russia.
Russia accused Georgia of genocide and sent in their tanks.
I am not sure how much you know about the operation of the UN Security Council but Russia like the USA has the power of veto over any resolution.
NATO is a different matter but so far they do not want be involved in this mess up.
As for the US. I here GWB making a lot of noise but certainly no commitments on action.
Dick Cheney may be a bit more vocal but still no direct indications of what they will do.
I do not expect that Bush will send in any US forces as that could escalate the situation beyond control.
This is Russian home turf and the Russia has never lost a conflict on their home turf in their entire history. Bush would be thinking about that at this moment.
He would also be concerned about Russian support in resolving Iran and North Korea.
Comment by S.L.
The Political Brief
Comment by Damo
For the Sake of Argument
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Drawing analogies with Hitler's invasion in the 30's is basically flawed. The situation is completely different.
Most likely the this already a done deal and Russia will pull back to South Ossetia within a week.
Bush and Putin had words together in Beijing days ago and would have decided how far each would be willing to go.
This is no different than what happens in other regions when the regional power gives a show of force.
I am not going to pay much attention to grandiose speeches from either side unless a US carrier turns up in the Black Sea. Then I might change my mind. However the tough speeches are just a side show for something that is most likely a predetermined outcome.
Bush needs Russia for other bigger issues and won't ruin the relationship over this.
Comment by S.L.
The Political Brief
Comment by Damo
For the Sake of Argument
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We shall see if I am correct in 2 weeks.
In the mean time I have looked up the Google map of Georgia and it is devoid of any road or town markings.
Comment by S.L.
The Political Brief
Comment by Damo
For the Sake of Argument
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Odd indeed but I have no real answer as to why.
Seems to be intentional.
Comment by Mike Landfair
Market Bugle
"The expectation of unconditional NATO support for Georgia actions due to its loyalty to the West may have been the biggest mistake that the Georgian President made. When sent tanks he possibly saw Russia as a sleeping bear too tired be a world power in comparison to his new best friend the USA. Unfortunately this perception was wrong and Russia immediately retaliated with over whelming force."
What just happened? According to U.S. Army Col. (ret.) Ralph Peters' whose latest book, "Looking For Trouble," takes readers through Georgia, "The Russians ordered North Ossetian militiamen, backed by Russian "peacekeepers" and mercenaries, to provoke the Georgians earlier this month.
Weary of the Russian presence on their soil, the Georgians took the bait. President Mikheil Saakashvili ordered his US-trained military to respond.
That was the excuse the Kremlin wanted. Immediately, a tank brigade from Russia's 58th Army (the butchers of Chechnya) crossed the international border into Georgia."
We should be sticking up for the Georgians. This was engineered by Russia to put them in their place and send notice to anyone else thinking of joining NATO.
Comment by S.L.
The Political Brief
Comment by Cibbuano
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... is the invasion justified?
Comment by The wonderful Peter Yang
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As if the body count in Iraq isn't high enough now, there are going to be body count up in Eruope as well.
And can I say, the body count this time surely accelrating much faster then Iraq.
Comment by Mike Landfair
Market Bugle
As far as leaping into the headlines quickly, I've read you don't do what Russia did without a lot of planning, so someone on ourside was caught with his pants down, or maybe we allowed Russia to fix its problem and they will allow us to fix our Iran problem.
Russia, BTW, doesn't seem too concerned about collateral damage!
Comment by Damo
For the Sake of Argument
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Thanks for your comments.
You have every right to disagree with the assertion I have listed as it was basically speculation.
I am looking at this situation based upon news reports from several sources. Some US others not.
From what I can work out this has been a separatist issue with Russian backing on one side. However Russia is also concerned about the possibility of anti ballistic weapons being installed around their border. If the Russian were baiting Georgia then it was foolish to take the bait so easily. Now we have a costly conflict that will prove nothing.
Comment by Damo
For the Sake of Argument
My Apologetics
If Russia does not pull back in a few days then things may get serious. However at this stage I see little reason for them to want to keep this going endlessly.
Cibbuano
Thanks for your comments.
It was brewing for some time but also caught me by surprise.
Peter Yang
Thanks for your comments.
That is the tragedy of this whole situation.
We see the news with broken buildings and dead bodies strewn. Human life seems to be cheap when it comes to brinkmanship.
Mike Landfair
I actually do not see what NATO or the West could do at this moment other than diplomacy.
Guns and Blockades are unlikely to do more than create a costly backlash against Western interests. The USA and NATO have plenty of weaknesses to exploit. Particularly when a pipe line runs through the middle of Georgia.
I figure that in a few days the Russian tanks will pull back; The pre skirmish status quo will return; the refugees will trickle and each side will claim the moral high ground. After a while we may get a clearer picture about what happened and how it started.
Then claims of genocide and ethnic cleansing can be tested. For now there is a huge fog of war.