Negotiations only work if both sides have something to lose. Sri Lankan War.
November 13th 2008 03:08
Negotiations only work if both sides have something to lose. Sri Lankan War.
13/11/2008.
The moment that one side has nothing to lose then it is game over.
The LTTE have offered a conditional ceasefire that was rejected by the Sri Lankan Government. It may seem odd that in a war where 70,000 people have been killed you would have the rejection of a chance for peace. The last two years has been very bloody, thousands killed and tens of thousands displaced. Southern India has been in political turmoil as politicians from Tamil Nadu protested for the support of the LTTE. Two have been arrested on anti terror charges for calling to lend physical support to the banned terrorist organization.
The swift action by the Indian government was not unexpected. The LTTE did kill the late Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in a suicide blast. An arrest warrant for the LTTE leader Pirapaharan was issued by the Indian government years ago and is still valid. Yet even as the southern province of India goes into political agitation it is almost impossible for them to contemplate any direct involvement in Sri Lanka. Their last intervention as Peace Keepers (IPKF) left 1200 Indian soldiers dead and precipitated the invention of the suicide bomber tactic.
The offer of peace by the LTTE also comes as little surprise. The LTTE de facto capital Kilinochchi looks set to fall in the next few months if not sooner. The main defences surround the area, which was a 3 meter high wall of earth called the ‘Anti Tank Bund’ has been breached in several places. Their last major land mass with access to the sea was cut just a few days ago and with it the supply route from Indian Tamil Nadu to the Kilinochchi city. The East coast and Southern central region of Sri Lanka has already been reclaimed by the Sri Lankan Army. The North has the Jaffna province which was reclaimed by the Sri Lankan Army just a few years ago. Kilinochchi is a city that is for all practical purposes encircled.
The amount of distrust between the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE is enormous. Peace negotiations have usually tests of will and patience where confusion reigned supreme. A couple of years ago the LTTE walked away from the peace process as negotiation broke down. Soon afterwards images of civilian being recruited to the LTTE circulated the internet as spam mail. Hostilities began between the two sides even though there was a peace accord still in place. The official with drawl of the peace accord ceasefire by the Sri Lankan government came as no surprise.
The current situation gives the appearances that the LTTE are finished. They may have a few extra tricks up their sleeves but it seems that the Sri Lankan armed forces are being cautious as they progress. In the 1990’s they were in a similar position but were over confident and the LTTE launch a wave of suicide attacks that sent the drove the army back. A lesson learned? A ceasefire was seen by the Sri Lankan Government as little more than a chance for the LTTE to rearm and recruit more soldiers.
As the army closes in on the LTTE capital we have this call for a ceasefire and the Sri Lankan government rejected it within a day. Instead they issued a demand for the LTTE to lay down their arms. The LTTE has everything to gain from a ceasefire but the Sri Lankan Government is not in the same position of being surrounded on all sides with their supply lines cut.
This brings up the question of negotiation. In a fight that so intense the only thing that will make both sides negotiate is if both have something to lose. In this case it appears that the LTTE have nothing to offer. The Sri Lankan government may see them as an already defeated army trying desperately to appeal for mercy. Too little, too late and in atmosphere of distrust it is destined to fail. The problem is that the LTTE no longer seem to have control of their own destiny and they are in no position to negotiate. Until they either offer something real or show that they are a force to reckon with any call for negotiation will fall on deaf ears.
13/11/2008.
The leader of the LTTE is at the centre.
The moment that one side has nothing to lose then it is game over.
The LTTE have offered a conditional ceasefire that was rejected by the Sri Lankan Government. It may seem odd that in a war where 70,000 people have been killed you would have the rejection of a chance for peace. The last two years has been very bloody, thousands killed and tens of thousands displaced. Southern India has been in political turmoil as politicians from Tamil Nadu protested for the support of the LTTE. Two have been arrested on anti terror charges for calling to lend physical support to the banned terrorist organization.
The swift action by the Indian government was not unexpected. The LTTE did kill the late Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in a suicide blast. An arrest warrant for the LTTE leader Pirapaharan was issued by the Indian government years ago and is still valid. Yet even as the southern province of India goes into political agitation it is almost impossible for them to contemplate any direct involvement in Sri Lanka. Their last intervention as Peace Keepers (IPKF) left 1200 Indian soldiers dead and precipitated the invention of the suicide bomber tactic.
The offer of peace by the LTTE also comes as little surprise. The LTTE de facto capital Kilinochchi looks set to fall in the next few months if not sooner. The main defences surround the area, which was a 3 meter high wall of earth called the ‘Anti Tank Bund’ has been breached in several places. Their last major land mass with access to the sea was cut just a few days ago and with it the supply route from Indian Tamil Nadu to the Kilinochchi city. The East coast and Southern central region of Sri Lanka has already been reclaimed by the Sri Lankan Army. The North has the Jaffna province which was reclaimed by the Sri Lankan Army just a few years ago. Kilinochchi is a city that is for all practical purposes encircled.
The amount of distrust between the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE is enormous. Peace negotiations have usually tests of will and patience where confusion reigned supreme. A couple of years ago the LTTE walked away from the peace process as negotiation broke down. Soon afterwards images of civilian being recruited to the LTTE circulated the internet as spam mail. Hostilities began between the two sides even though there was a peace accord still in place. The official with drawl of the peace accord ceasefire by the Sri Lankan government came as no surprise.
The current situation gives the appearances that the LTTE are finished. They may have a few extra tricks up their sleeves but it seems that the Sri Lankan armed forces are being cautious as they progress. In the 1990’s they were in a similar position but were over confident and the LTTE launch a wave of suicide attacks that sent the drove the army back. A lesson learned? A ceasefire was seen by the Sri Lankan Government as little more than a chance for the LTTE to rearm and recruit more soldiers.
As the army closes in on the LTTE capital we have this call for a ceasefire and the Sri Lankan government rejected it within a day. Instead they issued a demand for the LTTE to lay down their arms. The LTTE has everything to gain from a ceasefire but the Sri Lankan Government is not in the same position of being surrounded on all sides with their supply lines cut.
This brings up the question of negotiation. In a fight that so intense the only thing that will make both sides negotiate is if both have something to lose. In this case it appears that the LTTE have nothing to offer. The Sri Lankan government may see them as an already defeated army trying desperately to appeal for mercy. Too little, too late and in atmosphere of distrust it is destined to fail. The problem is that the LTTE no longer seem to have control of their own destiny and they are in no position to negotiate. Until they either offer something real or show that they are a force to reckon with any call for negotiation will fall on deaf ears.
The area in green is what the LTTE want to claim for a homeland called Eelam.
Changing fortunes of war in last 2 years.
The shrinking land from just a few months ago.
The map as of last Sunday.
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