Sri Lankan Civil War Is the LTTE about to be defeated?
August 15th 2008 04:02
Sri Lankan Civil War Is the LTTE about to be defeated?
August 14 2008
After 20 years or so looking at this conflict you can develop a sense of endlessness acceptance that it is here to stay. 70,000 dead in a population of 20 million is no small amount and has had a devastating impact upon the psyche of a nation where an entire generation have never known peace. In fact it may seem alien to many that peace could ever exist and many have decided to carry on their lives unconcerned with the constant threat of being killed. Like the road toll in the west it is a mere statistical risk unless it affects them directly. In short you do not find too many people hiding under their beds to avoid being killed in a possible bomb blast because they can accept that the threat of life can be cut at any moment and without warning.
In the last year things have changed dramatically in the separatist war with the LTTE (Liberation Tamil Tigers of Eelam); so dramatically that maps of occupied areas are being redrawn almost daily. Over the last two years the areas controlled by the LTTE have shrunk from looking like a shell surrounding two third of the Sri Lankan coastline to a small area near the top of the island. This is the most dramatic loss of land in the history of the war and is only dwarfed by the numbers of casualties (estimated to be between 2000-5000 in the last year alone). The battles have often been bloody but nowhere near as deadly as costly for the Sri Lankan armed forces. For every published figures of LTTE dead we have numbers between 20-40 in a day whereas the SLAF often account for only 2-5 each battle. On numbers alone the LTTE are being depleted of their professional fighters with little chance of replacement. According to Sri Lankan army commander Sarath Fonseka, at least 9,600 rebels and 1,770 soldiers were killed during the last two years.
Currently the battle lines have moved further to the North West capturing villages that were once LTTE stronghold bases of operation. Logistic centres, communication hubs with satellite and large radio towers have been captured. More importantly the main food source for the LTTE known as the Rice Bowl of the North has been overrun by the Sri Lankan Army. The SLAF website proudly displays its victories and even bodies of dead LTTE soldiers lined up beside caches of weapons. The most recent action captured the village of Mullaitivu from the LTTE.
The LTTE lost control of the South East of the Island after the Kurana faction defected to the government. With the defection the LTTE lost its greatest amount of territory and more importantly fighters. Kurana recently boasted that it was his forces that had been responsible for most the LTTE military victories in the past. He also cited the LTTE leader Prabhakaran despite having a god like control over his army was a very good strategist as was being demonstrated by the string of defeats. There are also unconfirmed reports that is suffering from acute diabetes exacerbated by the stress of the current war.
The Sri Lankan Daily News quotes figures of how the situation has changed. LTTE control has been reduced from 15,000 square kilometres two years back to 4,000 square kilometres reducing its fighting strength to 5,000 cadres.
The actual figure of 5000 LTTE cadres is an estimate and may vary significantly due to the types of soldiers being retained. No one is willing to speculate how many are the feared Black Tiger suicide bombers. There is also an estimated 75,000 civilians providing support in logistics, supply, spies in both willing and forced situations. Another estimated 75,000 have decided to evacuate themselves out of the way of the fighting. Finally there are said to be 200,000 civilians who cannot leave and are in danger of unintentionally being caught up in the crossfire.
Moral of the SLAF is said to be at its highest in the entire conflict where as moral for the LTTE is considered to be at its lowest point. The core of LTTE fighters have not yet come out to engage the Sri Lankan army in any significant manner. This may indicate a condensing of the force for a final battle or preparation for a significant counter attack. One thing that is not happening just is any indication of surrender.
The LTTE have dropped significantly as the undefeated warlords of the island in just two years. Despite syphoning off millions in Tsunami aid to their war effort and the millions that flow from front organizations around the world they are beginning to feel real financial pain. The only really effective operation in the war on terror was to reduce the flow of cash to terrorist groups like the LTTE. Many of their front fundraisers have also been close down or arrested in places as far away as London, Italy, Australia and Canada. The defection of the Kurana faction to the government side split land that they controlled in two. The change in fighting tactics by the SLAF has targeted the LTTE navy and ground forces. The LTTE air force has not been seen for a few months, indicating that it is inoperable or is being kept for later use. Any way we look at it the LTTE are a smaller, weaker and less threatening force that may be on the verge of losing all the land that it once controlled by the end of this year. What happens to the LTTE after that is speculative.
It is entirely possible that the LTTE will be reduced down to a smaller group of terror cells that strike randomly to blow up civilians. However it seems that unless something significant changes the LTTE dream of an independent homeland called Tamil Eelam will be just a fading memory. Perhaps by the end of 2008.
August 14 2008
Battle lines have moved significantly in just 2 years.
After 20 years or so looking at this conflict you can develop a sense of endlessness acceptance that it is here to stay. 70,000 dead in a population of 20 million is no small amount and has had a devastating impact upon the psyche of a nation where an entire generation have never known peace. In fact it may seem alien to many that peace could ever exist and many have decided to carry on their lives unconcerned with the constant threat of being killed. Like the road toll in the west it is a mere statistical risk unless it affects them directly. In short you do not find too many people hiding under their beds to avoid being killed in a possible bomb blast because they can accept that the threat of life can be cut at any moment and without warning.
In the last year things have changed dramatically in the separatist war with the LTTE (Liberation Tamil Tigers of Eelam); so dramatically that maps of occupied areas are being redrawn almost daily. Over the last two years the areas controlled by the LTTE have shrunk from looking like a shell surrounding two third of the Sri Lankan coastline to a small area near the top of the island. This is the most dramatic loss of land in the history of the war and is only dwarfed by the numbers of casualties (estimated to be between 2000-5000 in the last year alone). The battles have often been bloody but nowhere near as deadly as costly for the Sri Lankan armed forces. For every published figures of LTTE dead we have numbers between 20-40 in a day whereas the SLAF often account for only 2-5 each battle. On numbers alone the LTTE are being depleted of their professional fighters with little chance of replacement. According to Sri Lankan army commander Sarath Fonseka, at least 9,600 rebels and 1,770 soldiers were killed during the last two years.
Currently the battle lines have moved further to the North West capturing villages that were once LTTE stronghold bases of operation. Logistic centres, communication hubs with satellite and large radio towers have been captured. More importantly the main food source for the LTTE known as the Rice Bowl of the North has been overrun by the Sri Lankan Army. The SLAF website proudly displays its victories and even bodies of dead LTTE soldiers lined up beside caches of weapons. The most recent action captured the village of Mullaitivu from the LTTE.
What LTTE want is marked in green. They were able to control much of this area for about 20 years.
The LTTE lost control of the South East of the Island after the Kurana faction defected to the government. With the defection the LTTE lost its greatest amount of territory and more importantly fighters. Kurana recently boasted that it was his forces that had been responsible for most the LTTE military victories in the past. He also cited the LTTE leader Prabhakaran despite having a god like control over his army was a very good strategist as was being demonstrated by the string of defeats. There are also unconfirmed reports that is suffering from acute diabetes exacerbated by the stress of the current war.
Prabhakaran in the centre of this shot with his airforce pilots.
The Sri Lankan Daily News quotes figures of how the situation has changed. LTTE control has been reduced from 15,000 square kilometres two years back to 4,000 square kilometres reducing its fighting strength to 5,000 cadres.
The actual figure of 5000 LTTE cadres is an estimate and may vary significantly due to the types of soldiers being retained. No one is willing to speculate how many are the feared Black Tiger suicide bombers. There is also an estimated 75,000 civilians providing support in logistics, supply, spies in both willing and forced situations. Another estimated 75,000 have decided to evacuate themselves out of the way of the fighting. Finally there are said to be 200,000 civilians who cannot leave and are in danger of unintentionally being caught up in the crossfire.
LTTE war cemetry now captured by the Sri Lankan Army. An estimate 550 LTTE cardre were killed in the last month.
Moral of the SLAF is said to be at its highest in the entire conflict where as moral for the LTTE is considered to be at its lowest point. The core of LTTE fighters have not yet come out to engage the Sri Lankan army in any significant manner. This may indicate a condensing of the force for a final battle or preparation for a significant counter attack. One thing that is not happening just is any indication of surrender.
The LTTE have dropped significantly as the undefeated warlords of the island in just two years. Despite syphoning off millions in Tsunami aid to their war effort and the millions that flow from front organizations around the world they are beginning to feel real financial pain. The only really effective operation in the war on terror was to reduce the flow of cash to terrorist groups like the LTTE. Many of their front fundraisers have also been close down or arrested in places as far away as London, Italy, Australia and Canada. The defection of the Kurana faction to the government side split land that they controlled in two. The change in fighting tactics by the SLAF has targeted the LTTE navy and ground forces. The LTTE air force has not been seen for a few months, indicating that it is inoperable or is being kept for later use. Any way we look at it the LTTE are a smaller, weaker and less threatening force that may be on the verge of losing all the land that it once controlled by the end of this year. What happens to the LTTE after that is speculative.
It is entirely possible that the LTTE will be reduced down to a smaller group of terror cells that strike randomly to blow up civilians. However it seems that unless something significant changes the LTTE dream of an independent homeland called Tamil Eelam will be just a fading memory. Perhaps by the end of 2008.
This map was published earlier this year.
This map published less than a month ago show a much reduced area of control. There has been significant reduction in LTTE controlled areas to the North East since then.
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Comment by S.L.
The Political Brief
Good reporting, Damo.
Comment by Damo
For the Sake of Argument
My Apologetics
Thanks for your comments.
I am just passing on what I know for now. I will let the hot heads get upset over what happens on the battle field.
Certainly the greater portion of the 70,000 dead from this conflict have been civilians.