How Should the World React to Burma?
October 1st 2007 02:05
How Should the World React to Burma?
It is a difficult question that has difficult interrelated problems with it. The problem is simple enough to understand. A military dictatorship in control of the country does not want to give up its power. The democratic process is an obstacle to retaining power and was crushed in 1989 when Aung San Suu Kyi won in a landslide years ago. Despite winning the Nobel Prize for Peace she has been under house arrest for most of that period.
Recent protests by Buddhists monks in the capital are indicative of two looming issues of discontent. The most obvious is the lack of freedom and democracy; the other has to do with the sharp increase in fuel prices. The hip pocket nerve was trigged when real hardships of their reality were being realized.
The perception of overwhelming control is essential to any dictatorship and so any rebellion is usually crushed to make an example of the people. Yet absolute control is a rare commodity in any nation and so many dictators find that the very person that they would like to eliminate is impossible to eliminate. If the military leaders wanted to be rid of Aung San Suu Kyi they should logically just parade her out and shoot her. So far this has not happened and it is due to the fact that a dead hero is often far stronger than a living one. Why be so afraid to be ruthless with one person when they have never hesitated in with the nobodies on the street? The answer is one of desperate fear. The military fear what will happen if Aung San Suu Kyi becomes a martyr and national hero. They fear her ghost will be harder to fight than her living and fallible person. After all you cannot negotiate with a ghost. Hence you will always find the most ruthless dictators investing huge capital into propaganda to create a veneer of moral justification for their actions.
What makes the recent protests so remarkable is the fact that it was lead by Buddhist Religious Monks to give moral support to the concept of representative democracy and freedoms. Suddenly this battle ceased to be perceived as one of a morally justified regime putting down a rebellion. The Monks had put moral capital into the nation of opposing the Military Dictators.
Moral capital is seen in some eyes as nothing more than a moral high ground in a power struggle. In the hands of a propagandist it is precisely that, but in the eyes of people who believe that it is more the power struggle is a side show. A stoic victory is in fact a failed power struggle but successful moral victory. Yet it seems that the power struggle is the entire focus of the Military Rulers. Just like Chinese rulers presiding over the Tiananmen Square protests it the growing protests may have been seen as a direct threat to their power and positions. The effort to crush the protests was swift and tough. The nine reported killed (including a Japanese Journalist) is expected to be a gross underestimation.
The crackdown has included mass arrests of Monks from Monasteries, and beatings by the police on ordinary people. One BBC reporter said that he watched army officers beating a middle aged woman mercilessly. The army are said to be on the roads to show everyone who is running the nation and by why methods they intend to do so. The Internet lines to Burma have nearly all been cut to reduce information getting out.
The chance of repeating the 1989 mass killing spree by the government cannot be ruled out. So in many ways this has become a humanitarian crisis that could escalate very quickly and have consequences beyond Burma’s borders. In the event of any mass killings refugees will flow out to the surrounding and press on to further afield. So every nation has a legitimate right to pressure Burma to reach a peaceful solution to the crisis.
The question is will this pressure be applied or will enough pressure be applied. The Australian Government has ruled out trade sanctions that hurt the population more than the military. Other governments have said as much. The big traders in the Burma economy (China, India, Russia, France etc) have also been reluctant to speak up in case it threatens their interests in the large reserves of natural gas. China has the largest interest in Burma and has already built a gas pipeline into the nation. China is also the only nation that could put sufficient diplomatic pressure on Burma to make them listen. However so far they have been very contained in their words, to the point that it could be seen as not really interested. This position would suit the Chinese who have a similar problem in Tibet and who have the history of the Tiananmen Square massacre as their solution to rebellious liberals.
A UN envoy has entered Burma and met with the military leaders to avert more bloodshed. Whether he is successful will depend upon what support the diplomatic support he receives from the nations that make up the UN. Unless there is some kind of real and concerted support from nations then in ten years time the military may still be in power with the firm belief that brute force over the population was rewarded by world silence.
It is a difficult question that has difficult interrelated problems with it. The problem is simple enough to understand. A military dictatorship in control of the country does not want to give up its power. The democratic process is an obstacle to retaining power and was crushed in 1989 when Aung San Suu Kyi won in a landslide years ago. Despite winning the Nobel Prize for Peace she has been under house arrest for most of that period.
Recent protests by Buddhists monks in the capital are indicative of two looming issues of discontent. The most obvious is the lack of freedom and democracy; the other has to do with the sharp increase in fuel prices. The hip pocket nerve was trigged when real hardships of their reality were being realized.
The perception of overwhelming control is essential to any dictatorship and so any rebellion is usually crushed to make an example of the people. Yet absolute control is a rare commodity in any nation and so many dictators find that the very person that they would like to eliminate is impossible to eliminate. If the military leaders wanted to be rid of Aung San Suu Kyi they should logically just parade her out and shoot her. So far this has not happened and it is due to the fact that a dead hero is often far stronger than a living one. Why be so afraid to be ruthless with one person when they have never hesitated in with the nobodies on the street? The answer is one of desperate fear. The military fear what will happen if Aung San Suu Kyi becomes a martyr and national hero. They fear her ghost will be harder to fight than her living and fallible person. After all you cannot negotiate with a ghost. Hence you will always find the most ruthless dictators investing huge capital into propaganda to create a veneer of moral justification for their actions.
What makes the recent protests so remarkable is the fact that it was lead by Buddhist Religious Monks to give moral support to the concept of representative democracy and freedoms. Suddenly this battle ceased to be perceived as one of a morally justified regime putting down a rebellion. The Monks had put moral capital into the nation of opposing the Military Dictators.
Moral capital is seen in some eyes as nothing more than a moral high ground in a power struggle. In the hands of a propagandist it is precisely that, but in the eyes of people who believe that it is more the power struggle is a side show. A stoic victory is in fact a failed power struggle but successful moral victory. Yet it seems that the power struggle is the entire focus of the Military Rulers. Just like Chinese rulers presiding over the Tiananmen Square protests it the growing protests may have been seen as a direct threat to their power and positions. The effort to crush the protests was swift and tough. The nine reported killed (including a Japanese Journalist) is expected to be a gross underestimation.
The crackdown has included mass arrests of Monks from Monasteries, and beatings by the police on ordinary people. One BBC reporter said that he watched army officers beating a middle aged woman mercilessly. The army are said to be on the roads to show everyone who is running the nation and by why methods they intend to do so. The Internet lines to Burma have nearly all been cut to reduce information getting out.
The chance of repeating the 1989 mass killing spree by the government cannot be ruled out. So in many ways this has become a humanitarian crisis that could escalate very quickly and have consequences beyond Burma’s borders. In the event of any mass killings refugees will flow out to the surrounding and press on to further afield. So every nation has a legitimate right to pressure Burma to reach a peaceful solution to the crisis.
The question is will this pressure be applied or will enough pressure be applied. The Australian Government has ruled out trade sanctions that hurt the population more than the military. Other governments have said as much. The big traders in the Burma economy (China, India, Russia, France etc) have also been reluctant to speak up in case it threatens their interests in the large reserves of natural gas. China has the largest interest in Burma and has already built a gas pipeline into the nation. China is also the only nation that could put sufficient diplomatic pressure on Burma to make them listen. However so far they have been very contained in their words, to the point that it could be seen as not really interested. This position would suit the Chinese who have a similar problem in Tibet and who have the history of the Tiananmen Square massacre as their solution to rebellious liberals.
A UN envoy has entered Burma and met with the military leaders to avert more bloodshed. Whether he is successful will depend upon what support the diplomatic support he receives from the nations that make up the UN. Unless there is some kind of real and concerted support from nations then in ten years time the military may still be in power with the firm belief that brute force over the population was rewarded by world silence.
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Comment by DuskDevi
Rucks and Rolls
Rugby World Cup 2007
Interesting when an issue (and excellent post) like this gets No Comment and no reaction...is it because Moral Capital is actually put to good use?
Excellent research and argument Damo.
Dusk
Comment by Damo
For the Sake of Argument
My Apologetics
I guess this is not a big issue to most people.
Comment by Lilla
Enviro Warrior
An Extra Ordinary Life
Dream Herald
I agree with Dusk, and despite the
possibleinevitable fallout from the governors not relinquishing their control, I am glad they are marching ... I do not think the Chinese will open fire this time, they need the west now, more than ever ... perhaps something good to come out of consumerism?Lilla ...
Comment by KylieW
Celebrity Obsession
Gotta say that I too expected more posts on this issue from bloggers in general.
Really well thought out post that you've done here Damo. I can't believe the hypocrisy of Western Govt's who basically started a world war to (supposedly) free Iraq's from the tyranny of Sadam, yet are noticably silent about regime's such as Burma's and Mugabe's in Zimbabwe who commit atrocities against their own citizens.
Sad
Kylie
Comment by Damo
For the Sake of Argument
My Apologetics
Thanks for your comments.
I am not sure what the Burmese Government will do next, but I sense that they are living in a house of cards.
Watch the news for the next few days.
Kylie
I expected many more posts on this subject. especially since there are so many people with strong opinions here.
I do encourage others to write on this subject as I am hardly the world expert on Burma.
Yes I do see a double strandard of reaction to this and other recent upheavals. It seems to me that moral indignation takes a back seat to free trade agreements.
Dictators make predictable trading partners I guess.
Comment by Xavier Forrest
Regardless - i did a write up <a Really Long Link on the latest Burmese news. It leaves me chilled to think what has happened there and how quickly people have been torn apart. It seems from these first reports that thousands have already been killed.
Comment by Damo
For the Sake of Argument
My Apologetics
Thanks for your comments.
I will read you write up asap. (Which I am thankful that placed here for others to find)
Glib is not my usual style as I am an optomistic sort of person. However I think this is a very tragic situation and deserved a more attention than just a few headlines.
Comment by Anonymous
RKCHKBX xoxoxoxox
PS. GO MONKS SHOW EM WHAT UR MADE OF!!!
Comment by Damo
For the Sake of Argument
My Apologetics
Thanks for your comments
And I hape you project goes well.
We shall see how long the regime will last.