Sri Lankan Ceasefire over before it starts
July 27th 2008 02:02
Sri Lankan Ceasefire over before it starts
Analysis: July 2008
It is probably difficult for many people to understand that a ceasefire offer could ever be rejected. Yet despite the offer by the LTTE rebels for a unilateral ceasefire during the SAARC conference later this year but the Sri Lankan government has rejected it out of hand.
The war in the North of the country has been progressing in a manner that appears to be favouring the government forces for the first time in twenty years. It is only in recent months the LTTE have managed to lose ground and valuable land to an onslaught from the military. The office Sri Lankan defence website has predicted continues to print stories of success after success with an almost childlike glee at every opportunity. The once invincible LTTE have lost the Western province of Sri Lanka; the Mannar district (known as the rice bowl of Sri Lanka) and further North. According to government numbers two thirds of the LTTE fighters have been wiped out or killed. They estimate that less than 7000 combat cadres remain with logistic support from about 200,000 civilians. The stories are glowing with positive energy that any PR officer would be proud of.
Figures of the casualties from both sides can hardly be trusted as no independent verification can be made. The Press and NGO’s have not been permitted to visit the war zone and they both have been known to exaggerate the kill count when it suits them.
Yet it is a significant that LTTE once controlled vast areas of coastline now finds the area restricting until it becomes a landlocked situation. Much of their Navy called the Sea Tigers have been destroyed or captured, restricting their supply chain. The loss of the Mannar district has significantly reduced their means of self sufficiency in food production. However the Air Tiger are still reported as operational despite not being seen to often.
On the international front the LTTE has been under enormous pressure as their front organizations are investigated and fundraisers arrested: USA, France, Italy, London and in the last week the head of an International Business School has also been arrested in Melbourne Australia upon the request of the USA’s FBI. The satellite television service that broadcast LTTE propaganda was recently closed after years of operation. However the various official LTTE websites around the globe still remain intact.
The question of the ceasefire offer may seem like a chance for peace but it may also be a chance for the LTTE to regroup and rearm as has happened in previous ceasefires. It may also be a genuine attempt by the LTTE to find a face saving solution where they can hold political clout. Yet the government may think that they have nothing to gain in another ceasefire. Head of the Sri Lankan army Lt Gen Sarath Fonseka had recently said that it was his view that the LTTE have been defeated as a conventional force. He claimed that the enemy was reduced down to a low level insurgence.
It is very unlikely that the LTTE made the offer of a ceasefire with expectation that it would be accepted. The government had previously made a conditional offer for peace that was rejected by the LTTE. The estimated 7000 cadres are not to be underestimated as they are a significant and committed fighting force. Only the ensuing month will tell which side if any will in this test of stamina.
Analysis: July 2008
The War Continues and even this map is no longer current
It is probably difficult for many people to understand that a ceasefire offer could ever be rejected. Yet despite the offer by the LTTE rebels for a unilateral ceasefire during the SAARC conference later this year but the Sri Lankan government has rejected it out of hand.
The war in the North of the country has been progressing in a manner that appears to be favouring the government forces for the first time in twenty years. It is only in recent months the LTTE have managed to lose ground and valuable land to an onslaught from the military. The office Sri Lankan defence website has predicted continues to print stories of success after success with an almost childlike glee at every opportunity. The once invincible LTTE have lost the Western province of Sri Lanka; the Mannar district (known as the rice bowl of Sri Lanka) and further North. According to government numbers two thirds of the LTTE fighters have been wiped out or killed. They estimate that less than 7000 combat cadres remain with logistic support from about 200,000 civilians. The stories are glowing with positive energy that any PR officer would be proud of.
Figures of the casualties from both sides can hardly be trusted as no independent verification can be made. The Press and NGO’s have not been permitted to visit the war zone and they both have been known to exaggerate the kill count when it suits them.
Yet it is a significant that LTTE once controlled vast areas of coastline now finds the area restricting until it becomes a landlocked situation. Much of their Navy called the Sea Tigers have been destroyed or captured, restricting their supply chain. The loss of the Mannar district has significantly reduced their means of self sufficiency in food production. However the Air Tiger are still reported as operational despite not being seen to often.
On the international front the LTTE has been under enormous pressure as their front organizations are investigated and fundraisers arrested: USA, France, Italy, London and in the last week the head of an International Business School has also been arrested in Melbourne Australia upon the request of the USA’s FBI. The satellite television service that broadcast LTTE propaganda was recently closed after years of operation. However the various official LTTE websites around the globe still remain intact.
The question of the ceasefire offer may seem like a chance for peace but it may also be a chance for the LTTE to regroup and rearm as has happened in previous ceasefires. It may also be a genuine attempt by the LTTE to find a face saving solution where they can hold political clout. Yet the government may think that they have nothing to gain in another ceasefire. Head of the Sri Lankan army Lt Gen Sarath Fonseka had recently said that it was his view that the LTTE have been defeated as a conventional force. He claimed that the enemy was reduced down to a low level insurgence.
It is very unlikely that the LTTE made the offer of a ceasefire with expectation that it would be accepted. The government had previously made a conditional offer for peace that was rejected by the LTTE. The estimated 7000 cadres are not to be underestimated as they are a significant and committed fighting force. Only the ensuing month will tell which side if any will in this test of stamina.
| 32 |
| Vote |
Add To: 
Subscribe to this blog
Comment by S.L.
The Political Brief
Comment by Damo
For the Sake of Argument
My Apologetics
Thanks for your comments.
All wars are destructive, but civil wars just highlight the nastiness of humanity ten fold.
Peace is always a possibility but it would be wrong of me to outline the road map to peace when no matter what I say has no effect upon the powers that be.
The average Joe Six pack Lankan is of the impression that the war will be militarily over by the end of this year. That may mean that it will mutate into a fragmented insurgency and carry on for a few more years.
yet as happened in 1990 a nearly defeated LTTE struck back killing thousands of Indian Peace Keepers that were on the Island at the time.
If 7000 cardes are left then they are a significant number.
Comment by S.L.
The Political Brief
Comment by Damo
For the Sake of Argument
My Apologetics
Most of my friends are in safe places.
Comment by S.L.
The Political Brief